Early Vote Patterns in Harris County Spell Trouble for Clinton Campaign
After with two days of early voting completed, four clear trends have emerged, all of which point to big trouble for the Texas campaign of Senator Clinton.
First, voting is very heavy, especially in the Democratic primary. The combined Tuesday/Wednesday early vote totaled 23,947, of which 18,146 was on the Democratic side. The continues a trend we have noted across the country as far more people are attracted to the Democratic presidential match-up than the Republican contest. And with the GOP down to a presumptive nominee, Senator John McCain, and two long-shot hopefuls in former Governor Mike Huckabee and Congressman Ron Paul, the shift to the Democratic arena appears to be accelerating. In Tuesday’s Wisconsin primary, the Democratic primary drew 73% of the total vote, similar to the 76% share we had in Harris County in the early vote. And this large turnout has generally included a lot of independent and some Republican voters, who have broken for Senator Obama in the exit poll reports.
Second, early voting is especially light in heavily Hispanic neighborhoods. The Moody Park and Galena Park Early Vote sites, for example, report just 352 and 217 votes cast the last two days, compared to an average turnout of 684 votes in all 35 locations. Individual precinct reports also show low Latino turnout in early voting. Six heavily Hispanic precincts (44, 46, 62. 65, 69, and 79) recorded 97 early votes, with 70 cast in the Democratic primary. If Senator Clinton is counting on the Hispanic vote in Harris County, this is an early warning signal that the campaign had better ramp things up locally.
Third, African-American early voting is quite robust. Most polling sites in predominately black neighborhoods had above average voting on Tuesday and Wednesday. For example, Acres Homes MSC recorded 958 votes, Palm Center 904, and Sunnyside MSC 829 votes. Results from six largely African American voting precincts (68, 85, 136, 156, 197, and 271) confirm this pattern with a total of 299 early votes, of which 195 were Democratic primary ballots.
Fourth, and in my opinion most important, there is unprecedented Democratic primary voting in heavily Republican areas. A quick look at five heavily Republican boxes (74, 135, 273, 303, 469) across the county shows a total of 275 ballots cast the last two days, of which 212 were in the Democratic primary! In my 42 years of observing Texas elections, I have never seen this pattern before. Take precinct 469 in the Kingwood area, a box that gave President Bush 2111 votes in 2004 to John Kerry’s 471 votes. This 82% Republican precinct had 61 early Democratic primary votes on Tuesday and Wednesday compared to just 15 Republican ballots. In short, an 80% Republican precinct is casting 80% of its early votes in the Democratic primary. If this trend continues, and if voters in upscale Republican areas continue to favor Senator Obama over Senator Clinton, the Texas primary will likely end up as the Clinton’s Waterloo.
Dr. Richard Murray
It is very exciting to see the amount of voting taking place, not just in Texas but all over. Previously neglected areas are now taking control of "their" election and showing themselves willing to do so.
Thanks for the numbers!
Posted by: Cherie | February 21, 2008 at 05:26 PM
This is great news for Texas! For a state that was supposed to "not count" because the primary date was later, Texans now have the opportunity to strike a winning blow for change!
Hang onto hope Houstonians and keep demanding that Obama become the next President of our great country by casting those early votes.
Posted by: Shawna V | February 21, 2008 at 05:35 PM
Hello,
I'm really happy to read this article, because like so many others out there, I believe Barack Obama is the best candidate for president of The United States!
He supports the working class, is against NAFTA, and wants to work for changes that would benefit us all like health care and fixing social security.
He is experienced, with over 10 years as a political official, and worked as a civil rights lawyer and community organizer.
He will help bring change to this country, and I believe in him. Please consider voting early for Barack! http://texas.barackobama.com
Posted by: Rose | February 21, 2008 at 06:17 PM
If Obama is chosen, it will be because the blacks are voting for him because he is black and only 1/2 black, Obama said that he WILL NOT place his hand upon the holy bible nor raise his right hand to take the Oath of office, he also does not believe in the United States Flag, and he is Muslem, All of which Spells trouble for the USA.
Posted by: William | February 21, 2008 at 06:47 PM
I voted for Obama on Tuesday. I want to have as many chances as possible to stop the Clinton machine,asap. I will vote Republican in the general election. I hope other Republicans will do the same.
Posted by: orangecoog | February 21, 2008 at 07:34 PM
In response to Rose
Please get your information about Barack Obama from a credible source other the sites like 'Urban Legends'. Yes Barack is black but he is not muslim, he did hold a Bible when he was sworn in as senator. The person you are referring to is Keith Ellison, he was the first and only person sworn in using the Qu'ran. I can only assume you think we all look alike. But you know what the say about assumption.
Posted by: kimd | February 21, 2008 at 10:09 PM
If you find the map previously published in the Houston Chroncle, showing the areas in Houston most heavily populated by Katrina victims, that can explain the unusual turnout to vote in democratic primary in some usually republican areas. Some republican areas have a lot of apartment complexes where Katrina refugees have been living.So, those precincts are getting Louisiana democratic votes.There are still probably close to 100,000 New Orleans people living in Houston, and this is more likely to be permanent, since New Orleans has NOT been "fixed": many homes, apts, and gov't housing were lost, and not been replaced.Those displaced democrats are probably very determined to vote against republicans, after the treatment given by the Bush administration.Billions to Iraq, yet Bush (& Congress)have just let New Orleans "go" to the forces of nature.
Posted by: Velvet | February 21, 2008 at 11:32 PM
In response to Rose
It never ceases to amaze me how pervasive ignorance and propaganda are. And how comfortable some people are displaying it! How about simple math for you... What is the percent of black population in the United States (you know the country where you live?) Dah, it would be mathematically impossible fot Obama to win any election simply based on black votes! We already know some Republicans are casting a vote for him in the Primary and then switching to Repulican during the General election. The only thing is when God gives you favor, it doen't matter what the opposition does as he will make your enemies a foot stool! What is meant for evil or to hurt will help. Now for all who see that as a stratedy , thank;s for the help@
Dr. Murray:
I hope you continue to track these trends
Posted by: sue | February 22, 2008 at 02:33 AM
There is only one person I believe to be capable to unite the nation, the people, to close the gap between races, to make peace between religions, and this person is Obama. Hillary said, she will not candidate in Florida and Michigan, but she did. She is a liar.
Posted by: Johnson | February 22, 2008 at 02:42 AM
Rose represents the ignorant population of this country. It's really sad!
Posted by: Jay | February 22, 2008 at 08:05 AM
I just hope that Billary is knocked out of the water.
Posted by: Lestat7777777 | February 22, 2008 at 11:00 AM
Poor Rose!!! People LOOK where your name is in referance to your post. WILLIAM is the one that posted that if Obama wins it's because of blacks. Rose IS FOR OBAMA. Ya'll fingers are running amok like if Hillary was president of your brain. LOL SO FUNNY!!!!! Bash the wrong person. (Lestat7777777 puts a bandaid on Rose and pats him/her head) It's ok Rose I got your back. ;-)
Posted by: Lestat7777777 | February 22, 2008 at 11:04 AM
I had noticed the same pattern. Obama has a better grass roots organization highly committed and enthusiastic about turning out their voters.
Posted by: Gary Denton | February 22, 2008 at 12:29 PM
Could the heavy early Dem primary vote in Republican areas be FOR Hillary? Most Repubs I know want her to get the nomination because they think she is unelectable.........
Posted by: EyeNou | February 23, 2008 at 06:11 AM
Good to see you are blogging. For what it's worth, I think Obama is going to win by a good margin in Texas.
He has a well-organized campaign and is peaking just right. Mrs. Clinton's campaign, in my opinion, is not well organized and came into Texas with a bad strategy.
Just my two cents. Joe
Posted by: Joe Nolan | February 25, 2008 at 06:39 PM
In my opinion Obama is a hospital(RESIDENT) and Hilliary is (The Chief if Staff). Now the question is "Who would you prefer to OPERATE on You when you are HURTING? and trust me this Country is HURTING!! As for me, I'll trust the (Chief of Staff!) So Obama supporters, From the looks of it,He just might Win the (Nomination) but Just remember this,If/When Obama becomes President and then the real Problems of this Country are in his Face, and it's Time for (Resident President Obama) to OPERATE on this Hurting COUNTRY!! It's a KNOWN FACT that when a person is forced to deal with a CRISIS and they LACK EXPERIENCE!THEY USUALLY CHOKE!!!
Posted by: | February 27, 2008 at 01:00 PM
Poor Lestat7777777 or 666 (same name)With your Lame Comments about Hilliary, you should call yourself Les(chat)666. Shut-up already on go back to your PIT!!
Posted by: E | February 27, 2008 at 01:23 PM