Republican District Attorney Runoff

Since Johnny Holmes won an open-seat race for Harris County District Attorney in 1980, Republicans have run one of the largest criminal prosecution offices in the United States.  It has also been one of the most visible DA offices in America, in part because this county has sent more persons to death row who have actually been executed than any other county in Texas or state in the United States.  Republicans face the strongest challenge to their control of this important office in November 2008 than at any time in the last 28 years. 

Population shifts have resulted in growing minority populations in the county, a problem for Republicans up and down the Harris County ballot because local blacks and Latinos usually vote Democratic in General Elections.  And, the scandals in county government in general, and the District Attorney’s office in particular, have turned up the heat on Republicans who have won every county-wide election here since 1994.  Finally, the forced resignation of incumbent Chuck Rosenthal, followed by his replacement with a caretaker for the remainder of the year, means that Republicans will not have their usual incumbency advantage in November 2008.  This open-seat situation drew four contenders into the March 4 Republican Primary, resulting in a runoff between Kelly Siegler and Patricia Lykos on April 8th. 

Assistant DA Siegler would seem to have a big edge April runoff because she got 58,208 votes (41%) on March 4th, compared to 44,014 (31%) for former Judge Lykos.  But, April runoffs are very different animals than March primaries.  For one thing, voting is far lower in runoffs, and that will be especially true this year because in most of Harris County, we have no important Republican contests other than for the DA nomination.  (The Sekula-Gibbs/Olson runoff in 22nd Congressional District includes only about 7% of Harris County)  In low-vote runoffs everything hinges on finding people who voted for you in March, and getting them to come back to the polls in April.  This means the quality of each campaign really matters in a runoff, whereas name identification matters much less.  This may benefit Ms. Lykos, who is less well known that Ms. Siegler, the star of a number of high-profile capital murder prosecutions in recent years. Judge Lykos will also likely benefit as the outsider in the race, running against a 21 year veteran of the now sullied DA’s office.  The third-place finisher in the March round, Jim Leitner, has endorsed Ms. Lykos, as has the Houston Chronicle newspaper.  All in all, it could be a close race, but in either case history will be made because for the first time in Harris County’s 172 year history, a major party will have nominated a woman for District Attorney.  Times are indeed changing in the Lone Star State. 

That will be even more evident this fall when one of these Republican ladies will face off against former Houston Police Chief Brad Bradford, an African American nominated two weeks ago by the reenergized Democrats as they try to break a 28 year losing streak in the Harris County DA’s contest.   Gender and racial political differences are not only becoming much more important at the national level, but also right here in Bayou City, home of the original Men’s Club.      

-Dr. Richard Murray

Comments

[Kevin Whited]

** This may benefit Ms. Lykos, who is less well known that Ms. Siegler, the star of a number of high-profile capital murder prosecutions in recent years. **

Are we basing this assessment of name ID on any polling data, or just offering it up as opinion?

** The third-place finisher in the March round, Jim Leitner, has endorsed Ms. Lykos, as has the Houston Chronicle newspaper. **

Actually, Leitner says he will be voting for Lykos (a personal friend) but is NOT endorsing her:

http://blogs.chron.com/houstonpolitics/2008/03/leitners_da_choice_is_lightnin.html

Maybe it's a distinction without a difference, but I would think KTRK's political expert (and sometime Dem advisor) would find it worth noting. It's Leitner's own characterization, after all.

[houtopia]

I don't know Kevin, but seems like you're splitting hairs on the Leitner endorsement thing. When you tell folks you're going to vote for someone, isn't that at least implicitly an endorsement?

As to the first point, I haven't seen a polling data to indicate what Siegler's name ID is vs. Lykos', but it stands to reason that with a larger, less informed electorate (as we saw in March), basic name ID is more important than in a runoff with a much smaller, much better informed electorate. There may not be specific polling data in this race to support that argument, but electoral history certainly does.

VOTE FOR A DEMOCRAT

[MylisaS]

Judge Lykos is a conservative with plenty of legal experience and leadership abilities to run our county office. Thats why Mr. Leitner backs her. Atty Siegler is overzealous and was apart of the scandal that plagued the office by her husband. She allowed that behavior, thats why the office needs a person who is ethical. Judge Lykos fits the description better than anyone.