22nd Congressional District of Texas runoff

By Richard Murray
April 2, 2008

Since the creation of the 22nd Congressional District of Texas in the late 1950s, it has been represented by some of the more interesting members of the United States House of Representatives.  Former Harris County Judge Bob Casey, a powerful conservative Democrat, held the seat from 1958 to 1975 when he took a federal administrative appointment.  Dr. Ron Paul, a Republican, won a special election to fill that vacancy, and (with one two-year hiatus) represented the 22nd in Washington until he gave up the seat to run for the U.S. Senate in 1984. 

Dr. Paul was succeeded by Tom Delay, who became arguably the most powerful Texan sitting in the U.S. Congress since Senate Majority Leader Lyndon Johnson and House Speaker Sam Rayburn ran Capitol Hill in the1950s.  One of House Majority Leader Tom Delay’s great ambitions was to wipe out the Democratic majority in the Texas congressional delegation.   That led him to support the election of a Republican super majority in the 2002 Texas Legislative elections, and then to pressure the 2003 Legislature in Austin to enact one of the most extensive gerrymanders in the history of the U.S. House. 

The 2002 elections had returned 17 Democrats and 15 Republicans, and Delay aimed to get rid of every one of the 10 Anglo Democrats representing Texas in the House.  Three were targeted in primaries, where Delay’s map drawers sought to add more minority voters and defeat sitting Democrats Gene Green, Chris Bell, and Lloyd Doggett.  The remaining seven Democrats had their districts effectively abolished or so extensively redrawn that they would stand little chance against Republicans in the 2004 November General Election. 

Delay’s plan worked pretty well.  One of the three Anglo primary targets, freshman Chris Bell of Houston, was defeated in the March 2004 primary and replaced by an African American, Al Green.  The November results were even better as one Democrat changed parties, one retired, and four others were defeated.  Only Chet Edwards survived and Republicans added a net six seats flipping the delegation to 21 - 11.

But in creating this Republican majority, Tom Delay had shared some of his best precincts with adjacent Republican districts, apparently confident that his personal standing and tremendous fund raising appeal would keep the seat safely Republican.  These calculations were undermined when Tom Delay was implicated in the Jack Abramoff scandal in Washington.  Two former members of the Congressman’s staff ended up pleading guilty to federal corruption charges, as did Mr. Abramoff, a former golfing buddy of the Sugar Land congressman. 

As that was unfolding in Washington D.C., Travis County DA Ronnie Earle, a Democrat, secured an indictment charging Tom Delay and associates with violating Texas election laws.  The Majority Leader blasted Earle’s indictments as a blatant political stunt, but his own polling showed developments in Washington and Austin he had caused Congressman Delay severe political damage in his own district.  After holding off three Republican challengers in March 2006, the re-nominated incumbent concluded he would lose his own seat to former Congressman Nick Lampson if he stayed in the race to the November General Election.  Lampson, ironically, was one of the Anglo members Delay had targeted in 2004 when the Democratic congressman  held a Beaumont/Port Arthur/Galveston seat.  After losing badly in the 2004 General Election, Lampson moved in 2005 from Beaumont to Stafford Texas, where he had family ties, to challenge the man who had ended his congressional career. 

Lampson move seemed golden when, Delay resigned the 22nd District nomination and the Republican Party was unable to replace him on the ballot in mid-summer 2006.  Without a listed Republican, and the Party had to rally behind a write-in candidate, Houston City Councilwoman Shelly Sekula-Gibbs, to try and save the seat.  That effort failed, as write-in candidacies usually do, although Dr. Sekula-Gibbs, a Clear Lake dermatologist, did garner 42% of the vote to Lampson’s 52%.  Ms. Sekula Gibbs did win a consolation prize by winning a special election and getting the last few weeks of Tom Delay’s remaining term in November-January 2006-2007.

Because the 22nd District has a strong Republican tilt (President Bush beat Senator Kerry 64% to 36% in the 2004 General Election in the district), the GOP nomination for 2008 was highly valued, with ten candidates vying for the opportunity to take on Nick Lampson in this fall’s general election.  That field included the former Congresswoman, Sekula-Gibbs, Pasadena Mayor Jon Manlove, State Representative Robert Talton of Pasadena, former Sugar Land Mayor Dean Hrbacek, and, Pete Olson, a former senior staffer for Texas Senators Phil Gramm and John Cornyn. 

The March 4th Republican Primary drew about 62,000 voters to the polls in the 22nd District, of whom 56,124 cast ballots in the congressional race.  Sekula Gibbs ran first, with 30%, followed by party establishment favorite Pete Olson with 21%.  They face each other in the upcoming April 8th Runoff.  How is that likely to turn out?

As mentioned in a previous post on the Harris County DA race, runoffs are tricky and frontrunners in the first vote often lose to second place finishers in the first round.  Still, I give Shelley Sekula-Gibbs the edge in the April 8th vote for three reasons.

One, she does start with a 9% lead, nothing to sneeze at.

Two, Sekula-Gibbs has campaigned almost continuously in the district since the fall of 2006 and has higher name identity than Mr. Olson. 

Three, while Fort Bend County (where Olson finished first in March) usually casts more votes in the 22nd District Republican Primary than Harris County (where Sekula-Gibbs led) that may not hold in the runoff because we the latter haa hot DA and a State Representative runoffs that overlap the 22nd congressional map.  Of particular importance will be the 19 precincts in Congressional District 22 where there is also a runoff in State Representative Talton’s 144th District between Republicans Fred Roberts and Ken Ledger.  Sekula-Gibbs beat Olson in these 19 precincts 1,207 to 342 in first round, so she starts with an edge here.  But many more votes in this area went to former Pasadena Mayor John Manlove or Representative Talton, so both sides really need to work this area hard. 

In the end, the quality of the two campaigns will probably be decisive.  Finding your voters from the March 4th first round and getting them back out in April is crucial in these runoff contests. 

For those interested in a preview of how the 22nd District runoff race is shaping up, check on the early vote numbers for Harris and Fort Bend Counties.  In the March contest Fort Bend’s early vote was 12,205 to just 8,630 in Harris – a 60/40 advantage favoring Olson.  If that margin narrows significantly, clear advantage to Sekula-Gibbs.  If it widens, get your money down on Pete Olson.