The Permanent Campaign Comes to Houston

Nationally, analysts have noted that in recent years the campaigns for president and Congress never cease.  As soon as one election is over, the contest begins for the next round two years ahead.  Now we are seeing the same thing in Houston politics.  Last November, city voters returned Mayor Bill White to office for a third term.  Now, less than five months after Mayor White took the oath of office, the campaign for the November 2009 is gathering steam.  Three major candidates are actively organizing to run next year – City Controller Annise Parker, At-Large Councilmember Peter Brown, and Bracewell-Giuliani attorney Bill King, who was mayor of Kemah several years ago.

The Houston City Charter prohibits candidates raising money until next year, but that legal restriction has not prevented the aforementioned trio from engaging consultants, enlisting supporters, and developing campaign strategies for an election 17 months away.  Why has this happened?

One reason is term limits.  Bill White is a popular mayor, but the term limits provision in Houston’s charter forces him out of office in January 2010.  So everyone knows the 2009 election will be for an open seat at City Hall, which is a much better opportunity for office-seekers as opposed to having to run against an incumbent.  Term limits also force Annise Parker out of the Controller’s position after 2009 and, since she has already served on city council, the only elected position she can hold in the City of Houston is the mayoral position. 

Another factor is the general pattern we see nationally.  Campaigns at the state and local level simply start earlier and have become much more expensive.  A couple of examples illustrate this change.  As late as July 1991 Houston businessman Bob Lanier was still weighing whether to join the mayoral race that fall with incumbent Kathy Whitmire and Texas State Representative Sylvester Turner.  When Mr. Lanier formally announced and launched his campaign, there were less than 100 days until the November 1991 election.  Nevertheless, he was able to run ahead of Ms. Whitmire in the November General Election and then defeat Representative Turner in a December runoff.  Start to finish, the Lanier campaign lasted about 120 days and expended roughly three million dollars.

Contrast that with the election campaign of our current mayor, Bill White.  White, an attorney and business executive, began organizing his 2003 campaign early in 2002.  Drawing on his personal wealth, he hired staff, commissioned polls, and launched a major television ad effort in March 2003, long before his better known opponents, Representative Turner and Houston City Councilmember Orlando Sanchez, where ready to go on the airwaves. White subsequently blew past his opponents to lead Mr. Sanchez into a runoff, which he won by a two-to-one margin.   The early bird truly got the worm, and everybody in the political village took due notice.

In addition to signaling that serious mayoral candidates had better start early in Houston, the successful White campaign set the fund-raising bar much higher as well, raising seven million dollars to augment his personal investment of more than two million dollars in the 2002-2003 campaign.  With much more money needed to compete, as paid advertising will likely start in March 2009, candidates have to get organized early to keep up with the Jones (or the Kings, Browns, and Parkers). 

Whether these very long campaigns benefit voters is an open question, but sure winners in this new political world are political consultants, now getting steady work for a year or more, and local media owners who can anticipate several million dollars in extra revenue from the 2009 city elections as TV, radio, and print ads start early and often.   

- Dr. Richard Murray