Early voting: Catch me if you can

With a full week of early voting in the electronic can, some definite patterns are emerging. Most evident, across Texas and in Harris and other local counties, we are seeing a massive increase in early voting. In the 2004 presidential election, for example, Harris County had 214,286 early votes + absentee ballots returned after seven days. This year we have 422,846 such votes already cast as of October 27th. At this pace, we will end up with about 750,000 early and absentee mail ballots, compared to a total of 458,999 four years ago.

Fort Bend County’s 2008 early vote performance is even more off the charts. This year they had 95,198 early and absentee ballot as of yesterday, nearly 32% of their total registered voters, compared to just 37,408 after seven days in 2004, representing only 15% of registered voters.

Statewide, 2,069,331 votes have been recorded in the 15 most populous counties in Texas. Adding in the rest of Texas, we already have between three and four million presidential votes recorded in our state. Any notion that election day is November 4, 2008 is clearly passé – for most Texas voters the election is now a two-week affair that started a week ago Monday.

OK, so we are voting earlier than usual. What difference does that make? One big difference is that the composition of the early vote in quite different this year. In years past, the early voters have tended to be more conservative and Republican in general elections than the people who cast ballots election day. This meant Democratic candidates were often well behind their Republican opponents when the polls opened on the official “election day,” requiring that they play catch-up in order to win office.

This year, the composition of the large early vote is much more tilted toward Democrats. Here in Harris County, for example, I estimate that of the 376,761 early votes cast as of yesterday, 113,036 were the ballots of African-American voters – the most Democratic segment of the local election. This constitutes 30% of the total county early vote, with Hispanics, who lean Democratic, adding another 16% percent. This means that the early vote totals, which County Clerk Beverly Kaufman will release about 7:30PM next Tuesday night, will show far higher Democratic percentages in Harris County than was the case four years ago.

What accounts for this shift? A combination of the “Obama Effect” that is producing very high turnout among African Americans and higher than usual voting among young adults, plus less enthusiastic support to date of the John McCain/Sarah Palin ticket among Republican voters. This puts local Democrats is the unusual position of playing “Catch Me If You Can” in the remaining days of our two week election.

Three things can happen to save the day locally for Republicans. First, the heavy Democratic early vote may run out of steam because most of the party’s supporters have already rushed to the polls, leaving relatively few left to cast ballots later this week and next Tuesday. Second, a significant number of Obama voters may simply cast a presidential ballot, and skip the down-ballot races, cutting into the Democratic advantage in down-ballot races. Third, Republican voters may get more motivated as the looming prospect of an Obama presidency and heavily Democratic Congress takes hold in the coming week.

All these are possible, but what is certain is that Republicans now have to play catch-up in the last days of the 2008 election cycle.

Comments

[John the Builder]

Yes they have already rushed to the polls the first time, now they same ones are rushing back to the polls to vote again, and again, etc. The joke is on them, no matter how many times they vote for Nobama he cannot be President. It will be challenged in many courts before America will allow this mockery can be made of USA!

[Sally the Nurse]

Remember folks every time you vote for Nobama over and over again is a win for the real American party. You choose to lose, so don't be upset why you have lost the election. Real American's know the truth about you and him.