A Few Pointers On the Houston Mayoral Race

Monday City Controller Annise Parker formally declared her candidacy for mayor of Houston. City Council Member Peter Brown has also been campaigning for months, and Former Houston City Attorney Gene Locke has designated a treasurer and begun raising campaign funds. Another former City Attorney, Ben Hall is expected to enter the race shortly, with others likely to follow. With the Houston General Election still nine months away, several questions come to mind. Here is a short list, with my responses to each.

Why is the race starting so early?

First, the mayor’s job in Houston is a very attractive position, so it always attracts several heavyweight contenders when the incumbent cannot run for reelection as is the case this year. Second, all across the nation, political campaigns in the 21st century start earlier and Houston is no exception. Serious candidates have to match their competitors in fund raising, hiring staff, and shaping a campaign message to appeal to voters, and one cannot get behind in these regards. Bill White, virtually unknown to most city voters in 2003, showed the wisdom of an early start when he used his ample war chest in February and March of that year to fund a major television effort introducing himself to voters on his own terms. That laid a foundation for him to overcome his better known opponents, State Representative Sylvester Turner and former City Council Member Orlando Sanchez, both of whom had been finalists in previous mayoral races.

A lot of people like former Texas Governor Mark White are mentioned as possible mayoral candidates, when does the field really take shape?

Officially, not until filing closes in September. But as the answer above suggests, we should know all the serious candidates before March 1st. What we do not know, however, is whether all these candidates will go the distance. In the 2003 mayoral race, my former student Michael Berry ran for mayor all spring and summer only to decide in mid-September to drop out and run again for his city council position. So we do not expect additions to the field after March, but we may well get subtractions as declared candidates withdraw because of fund-raising problems, poor polling numbers, or other personal reasons.

What role do political parties play in Houston city elections?

Officially, city elections are non-partisan. Candidates can run on a slate with others, but that slate cannot be the name of a political party. However, most serious candidates for mayor have been active in partisan politics for years, and their voting history in party primaries is public information, so we can figure out who the Democrats and Republicans are despite the absence of labels on the ballot. Lately, most serious candidates have had Democratic connections like Bill White and Sylvester Turner in 2003. That reflects the fact that the City of Houston is more Democratic than Republican in General Elections like the recent McCain/Obama presidential contest. That said, a solid 35% of city voters are Republicans, and in a multi-candidate field like we have in 2009, that can provide a large enough base to get into the runoff although not enough to win the mayoral office.

What’s with the runoff? Didn’t Governor Perry get elected two years ago with 39% of the vote? Why was there no runoff in that contest?

Besides being officially non-partisan, city elections require a majority (50 percent plus) for election. General Elections for state, federal, and county offices only require a plurality, or more votes than any other single contender, so Governor Perry’s 39 percent made him a winner over the second place finisher, Chris Bell, who got 30 percent. Requiring a majority virtually assures we will have a runoff in Houston this year, because with four or more serious candidates, it is very unlikely anyone can get a majority on November 3rd 2009, thus forcing a runoff in early December.

What else should Houstonians be watching for as this race gears up?

Initially, two things. One, follow the money. Except for wealthy candidates who can self-finance, a competitive candidate has to raise 3 – 5 million dollars to mount a nine month campaign. Second, watch how the contenders perform as they take their campaigns out into the community. None of them have run for mayor before, so we do not know much about what their messages will be nor how effectively they can connect with voters. As the race moves along, other considerations like group endorsements will play more of a role, but that is down the road.

Comments

[Kevin Whited]

** A lot of people like former Texas Governor Mark White are mentioned as possible mayoral candidates, when does the field really take shape? **

Ugly comma splice.

[Uracan]

The wealthy interests who can provide the candidate with money, and a friendly media that sells us their candidate of choice, and demonizes the opposition are the two drivers that help the Chosen One winning an election. The people of Houston cannot make informed decisions because the media does not do in-depth analysis or even accurate reporting.