Sizing up the Perry/Hutchison Republican Gubernatorial Primary

Years ago Texas often had highly competitive primaries for governor, but that was back when the Democrats dominated state elections, so their party’s nomination was eagerly sought as it virtually assured election the following November. Interestingly, although the Republican Party has dominated Texas elections since 1992, it has not had a meaningful contest for governor in that time span. That run seems over as Texas senior United States Senator appears determined to challenge Governor Rick Perry, the longest serving chief executive in state history (there are no term limits for state or county officials).

Why are Texas’ most prominent elected Republicans set to duke it out over next year’s governor nomination? Some of it is personal. The Senator and Governor simply do not like each other, so there is no bond of affection to be severed here. They also represent different sectors of the party. Senator Hutchison has always done well with moderate upscale voters, particularly women in Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston. Governor Perry hails from rural Texas (Haskell County), but his current base is the sizeable social conservative wing of the party that is strongly pro-life, opposed to gay rights, hostile to teaching evolution in the public schools, and tough on immigration.

Senator Hutchison’s senate term runs until January 2013, but she is clearly unhappy in Washington and ready to pursue her often-stated ambition to finish her political career in Austin as she threatened to do in 2005 when she weighed a race against Governor Perry but passed on it at the last moment and was easily reelected to the Senate. This time she has clearly signaled it is a go. Transferring eight million dollars from her senate campaign fund and releasing a list of hundreds of gubernatorial supporters pretty well locks Ms. Hutchison into making this race. Governor Perry seems equally determined to ask voters for another four year extension to his already record tenure.

Who has the edge? Hard to say as some factors favor the Senator, others the Governor. Kay Bailey Hutchison is the more popular of the two with Texas voters, but weaker with social conservatives who tend to vote in the low-participation Republican Primaries. The Senator needs a high-turnout primary that attracts moderate urban voters. The Governor needs a low turnout in March 2010 where the born-again Christian vote wields power. Both should be able to fund 12-15 million dollar campaigns and have capable political teams working on their behalf so those factors will not decide the race.

Hutchison faces a tough choice in keeping or resigning her senate seat before the March 2010 primary. In favor of resigning are the arguments that it absolutely removes any doubt that she is running, it gets her out of Washington (and the many hard votes coming there in the next year) and back to Texas to campaign for the next year. Countering are the arguments it is a very bad idea to give up a Republican seat when a shift of just one vote to the Democrats would break her national party’s ability to use the filibuster threat to slow President Obama’s expansive legislative agenda, plus the fact that Governor Perry would get to name an interim senate replacement and reap political credit if he makes a choice that pleases Republican Primary voters. I have not had a personal conversation with Ms. Hutchison since 1992, but my unsolicited advice would be to keep your senate seat while running back in Texas, just as Democrat Price Daniel did in 1956. If you win (as Daniel did that year), then you get to name your short-term replacement after you are sworn in as governor.

For political junkies, the Perry-Hutchison matchup looks like a lot of fun. Man versus Woman. Good hair versus Pretty Good Hair. River Oaks Country Clubbers versus Second Baptist parishioners. I’m laying in a good supply of popcorn and angling for a good seat in the bleachers.

But Republicans should keep one thing in mind. The last time the governor of the dominant party was challenged in his own primary was 1978 when Dolph Briscoe faced Attorney General John Hill. That Democratic Primary was bitter and divisive. General Hill won, but the bad feelings from the spring contest were still around in the fall when Republican Bill Clements broke his party’s 100 year losing streak in gubernatorial elections. Texas is a “red state”, but a divisive primary could change that.

Comments

[Texas Conservative]

What would happen if a real conservative got into the race, and exposed these two RINO's for what they really are?

http://www.runmedina.com/

[Houston Employment Attorney]

Thanks for the 'size up'. I was wondering about these guys.

[Larry Kilgore for Gov TX Secede]

While Perry/Hutchison debate how to live under the dictatorial policies of the USA. Mr. Kilgore will be promoting a free and independent Texas.

[Conroe, TX]

Texas REBORN!!! Kick the corrupt Federal government out!

[Daniel]

If these two main candidates are split, Kilgore could get the nomination. Pray hard that he will.