The 2009 Houston Mayoral Race: The Black Vote and Gene Locke’s Candidacy

From time to time I will revisit the ongoing Houston mayoral race. Today let’s look at the role of the African American vote in recent contests and speculate about it’s impact in the 2009 November results. A good way to get one’s arms around an upcoming election is to look at past comparable contests. Over the last 18 years Houston has had four competitive mayoral elections in1991, 1997, 2001, and 2003. In each case there was a single serious black candidate in the field as State Representative Sylvester Turner ran in 1991 and 2003, and former Houston Police Chief Lee Brown was on the ballot in 1997 and 2003. All of these November contests went to runoffs in December since no candidate gathered a majority in the first round. The 2009 General Election seems to be taking the same track as there is just one credible African American in the race (former City Attorney Gene Locke), and with several other serious contenders in the field, it is well nigh impossible for anyone to break the 50% plus one barrier on November 3rd, 2009.

The table below reviews the performance of Sylvester Turner and Lee Brown in the last four competitive elections. The table shows the total vote for mayor, the vote received by the black candidate, and his percentage of the total. Also shown is how well the African American candidates ran in a sample of 20 voting precincts that are predominately black. As one can see, Sylvester Turner got 36% of the total vote in 1991, taking about 73% in our black sample areas. Turner’s second place finish put him into a runoff with Bob Lanier, where he lost 47% to 53%. In 1997, Brown got over 42% of the total vote, including 96% of the black vote, putting him into a runoff with Rob Mosbacher that he won with about 53% of the vote. Brown repeated that performance in 2001, and beat Orlando Sanchez in a runoff. In 2003, Turner upped his black vote share to 81%, but his 29% total vote left him a close third, out of the runoff.

What do these numbers tell us? First, while most African American voters rally behind a credible candidate from their community, that level of support has varied between the low 70 percentages and the high 90s. Since the black vote is usually about 30 percent of the city total, if a black candidate gets almost all the African American vote, as Lee Brown did in 1997 and 2001, they are virtually assured of making a runoff. But as Sylvester Turner’s 2003 experience shows, even an 80% share does not automatically send one into the December runoff.

The African American Vote in Competitive Houston Mayoral Elections

Year

Total Vote

Black Candidate

Vote for Black Candidate and % of Total

Black Candidtate Vote and % in 20 African American Precincts

1991	316,278	Turner	113,982	36.0%	12,012 of 16,389	73.4%
1997	313,123	Brown	132,324	42.3%	18,581 of 19,462	95.5%
2001	288,283	Brown	125,282	43.5%	15,260 of 15,978	95.5%
2003	300,768	Turner	87,267	29.0%	12,901 of 15,875	81.3%

 

This recent black election history is most relevant in 2009 to Eugene Locke’s candidacy. In that respect it is clear how important Ben Hall’s decision not to run this year was. If Hall, an African American as well as a former City Attorney like Locke had run, they would have likely split the black vote, making it very difficult for either to make a December runoff. Locke’s task is now much easier. If he can get 90% of the black vote, he is assured of making the runoff no matter what his non-black support level will be. At 80% he needs at least 10% of the non-black vote to get in a runoff, and at 70% he needs about 17% of this remainder to get into the finals. Of course, while making a runoff is essential in 2009, to actually win the office will require any African American to take at least 33% of the votes cast outside the black in December 2009.

So Eugene Locke’s job is two-fold this year. With Hall out he must firm up broad support in the black community. Which may not be easy in that Locke has never run for citywide office before, while all three other major announced candidates (Annise Parker, Peter Brown, and Roy Morales) have run in recent City of Houston contests. But Locke must also move beyond the black community , showing he can be a “crossover candidate” capable of getting a decent share of the votes of Anglos, Latinos, and Asian Americans. Since Locke is not well known, both tasks will require a well-funded campaign. So, as I say in my political marketing class, a new candidate’s “first primary” in American politics is raising the money. Opponents Parker and Brown now seem on track to raise and spend 2-3 million dollars before November. Locke needs to show he is in that league when he files his first financial report on July 15th, 2009.

Comments

[Kevin Whited]

** Today let’s look at the role of the African American vote in recent contests and speculate about it’s impact in the 2009 November results. **

Come on Prof -- two sentences in, and there is it's/its confusion?