Why Houston Is Not Likely to Elect a Hispanic Candidate as Mayor in 2009

Why Houston Is Not Likely to Elect a Hispanic Candidate as Mayor in 2009. Second of Two Posts

By Richard Murray

A couple of days ago I reviewed the poor performance of Hispanic candidates in Houston mayoral elections in recent years. The most important reason for this, I contend, is that the Latino vote share in city elections (typically 12 – 16 percent) is far smaller than their population share (about 41 percent). There is a lot of “tribal” voting in city elections, but the “tribes” of white Republican conservatives and African Americans are much larger in city elections (each averages about 30 percent of the total electorate), so Latino candidates are at a distinct disadvantage in competing against opponents that have a political base in these other camps. So, while a black or white conservative can make a runoff in a multi-candidate field simply by mobilizing voters like themselves, Hispanics must draw strong support from outside their community to make it into the finals. Excepting Orlando Sanchez, a Cuban American Republican, no Latino has been able to do this.

There are other reasons for the non-success of Latino mayoral contenders. One problem is the lack of cohesion among local Hispanic voters. Some Hispanics were living here before Texas became a state, but most local Latinos trace their ancestry to later migrations at different times under different circumstances. Once in Houston, divisions have been as common as unity among Hispanics, often preventing formation of a common front in city elections. Credible black candidates in Houston can count on 80% plus of the African American voters. Hispanics fall short of such percentages. In his 2001 runoff election with Lee Brown, for example, Orlando Sanchez actually ran behind Mayor Brown in most heavily Latino precincts.

The lack of previous success creates and sustains a negative feedback barrier to future Hispanic candidates. Because Hispanics have yet to demonstrate they can win the top job at city hall, serious Latino candidates for this position have been few and far between. And when Hispanics do run for mayor, poor prior performance makes hard for them to raise money, garner free media coverage, and attract committed volunteers.

This negative feedback loop seems to be operating in the 2009 cycle. One Latino candidate, Roy Morales, has announced for mayor. His presence will affect the race, as he figures to get a decent share of the total vote if he remains the sole Latino on the ballot and the only identified Republican. Still, few think he can win. I concur. Mr. Morales’ ran for at-large council seats in the last two Houston General Elections in 2005 and 2007. He got 32 percent of the vote in a three person race in 2005 that Peter Brown won with 51 percent. He got 34 percent in a head-up council race with Melissa Noriega two years later – giving him a 33 percent average. If he could get the same share in a multi-candidate field in 2009, he would surely earn a runoff spot. I doubt that is possible. Why do I think he will fall well short of that?

First, Morales did not raise much money in 2005 and 2007, meaning the “investors” who fund down-ballot city races did not think he was a viable candidate for council. I doubt they will change their minds now that he is running in a much tougher race for mayor.

Second, Morales has tapped into two different voter bases in his two previous runs, Latino voters and Republicans, but an analysis of his support in both camps suggests their backing is shaky at best. In 2005, Morales carried all the heavily Hispanic precincts in the city when he was running against two Anglos, averaging about 60% of the total vote. But when he ran against Melissa Noriega in 2007 (who happens to be an Anglo married to Rick Noriega), Roy Morales’ vote dropped to just 25% in Latino precincts. This pattern indicates to me that in a high visibility race like mayor in 2009, Mr. Morales cannot count on as large a share of the Hispanic vote as he got in 2005. Mr. Morales also ran well in strongly Republican precincts in Kingwood and a few outlying areas in 2005 and 2007, but he lost the heavy voting inner-city Republican areas like River Oaks that are more plugged into what is going on at City Hall. These better informed Republicans will be more numerous in a mayoral race than was the case in the earlier council contests, and harder to attract, in my judgment, to a candidate with little chance of winning.

Sizing these vote patterns up, if the present field stays intact with the major opposing candidates being Annise Parker, Peter Brown, and Gene Locke, I think Roy Morales gets somewhere between 12 and 20 percent of the total vote November 3rd. That is enough to keep any other candidate well short of a majority, but not enough to make a runoff, much less win the final decisive round in December.

Comments

[akcanhart]

we have a black president so what is the problem?