The Electoral History of Annise Parker

The Electoral History of Annise Parker: What Does It Tell Us About Her Prospects for Mayor in 2009?

When political analysts look at a current election campaign, a common approach is to review previous elections, especially if one or more of the current contenders were candidates in comparable contests. Applying that perspective to the 2009 Houston mayoral race, one notes that while none of the announced candidates have run for the CEO job before, three of the four significant candidates have run in previous city elections. Of those, Annise D. Parker has the longest electoral history, having run four times for city council (three successfully), and three more times for city controller (all successfully). What does Ms. Parker’s track tell us?

Annise Parker’s only losing race was back in November 1991, when she challenged Houston City Council Member Vince Ryan in District C. She lost badly, getting just 10,644 votes (23.4%) to Ryan’s 34,885. That result confirmed the near impossibility of defeating a sitting city council member in Houston, unless the incumbent has been tarred by personal scandal. Perhaps realizing that, Parker did not run again until 1997 when the city’s tough term limits rule created several open council spots. Parker entered a seven candidate field for At-Large Position One, squeaked into a runoff with 20.1% of the vote, and soundly defeated her remaining rival, businessman Don Fitch, 57.9% to 42.1%.

Since this was Annise Parker’s “breakthrough” election, it warrants close study. In hindsight, the at-large field set up exceptionally well for Ms. Parker in that it included three African Americans, two Hispanic candidates, an Anglo male (Fitch), as well as the eventual winner. Especially important for Ms. Parker’s success was the presence of multiple black candidates, since the first round came down to fight for the runoff spot opposite Mr. Fitch, whose Republican credentials and business background enabled him to lead all contenders with 28.4% of the November vote. But Annise Parker just nosed out Alphonso Delaney, getting 48,660 votes to his 46,578. Parker bested Delaney because her bases in Montrose and the Heights gave her about 65% and 45%, respectively, of the local vote, and she added 12% to 15% everywhere else in the city. Meantime, Delaney led in virtually all black precincts, but his margins were often under 40%, with African Americans Hershel Smith and Theloniaus Peugh cutting into his support. Yolanda Black Navarro and Rafael Hernandez also divided the smaller Latino vote, giving Annise Parker the very valuable runoff position with Don Fitch.

Why was the runoff spot opposing Fitch so valuable? Because since the victories of Kathy Whitmire and Eleanor Tinsley in the 1970s, a white female supported by a coalition of moderate to liberal whites and minorities has defeated a white male conservative in every high-profile city runoff contest for the last 30 years. The pattern was repeated in 1997. With the five minority candidates out of the race, Annise Parker took about 75 percent of the black vote in the runoff, and 68 percent in heavily Latino precincts.

Once on council, Annise Parker benefited from the “incumbency advantage” in her 1999 and 2001 reelection campaigns. With three city wide victories behind her, she was in a great position to run for the open city controller job in 2003. In a six-person field she easily lead with 41.7% of the vote. Her runoff opponent was District A Council Member Bruce Tatro, like Don Fitch, a conservative Anglo. The 2003 runoff results were the same as 1997, with Parker benefiting from a “progressive” coalition of moderate and liberal Anglos, plus strong support from both black and Hispanic voters with no minority candidates on the ballot. And once in the controller position, Annise Parker was reelected without opposition in 2005 and 2007.

So, after an initial loss at the polls 18 years ago, Annise Parker has won six consecutive city-wide elections. With the mayor’s position open, her successful track record once again makes Ms. Parker a strong favorite to win one of the runoff spots for the December showdown. But unlike her breakthrough wins in 1997 and 2003, there seems little likelihood Annise Parker will again be paired with a white conservative in December 2009 because her principal rivals are Council Member Peter Brown, who also draws support from white moderates and liberals, and African American Gene Locke, who has significant support from major business interests. Either way, we should be headed for a quite different runoff election in 2009 than we saw in 2003 and 1997.

Richard Murray

Comments

[Houston Labor Lawyer]

Wasn't really familiar with Annise Parker, but I'm glad you introduced me.