Looking at the Special Election in District H

Looking at the Special Election in District H: Is This Still a “Hispanic” District?

When the City of Houston cut a deal in 1979 with the U.S. Department of Justice to shift from eight at-large council districts, to a nine district, five at-large system, the relatively small Latino vote in the city led the map-drawers to concentrate all the heavily Hispanic voting precincts in a single district – I – that would presumably give a candidate from that community a good chance of winning. That happened, as Ben Reyes was elected, and re-elected from District I until terms limits forced him off council in January 1996.

Meantime, the Hispanic population in the city was growing rapidly, and the Latino community began pressing for the creation of a second district they might dominate. This happened after 1991, when some of the Latino precincts in District I were shifted to District H to make it significantly more Hispanic. That split worked. Latino candidates finished one-two-three in the 1993 council district election, with Felix Fraga winning the seat in a runoff against Liz Lara. Fraga was easily reelected in 1995 and 1997, and in 1999 Gabe Vasquez led a field again dominated by Latino candidates and won a runoff with Yolando Black Navarro. Then in 2003, Adrian Garcia led a mostly Hispanic field into a runoff with Diana Davila Martinez and narrowly defeated her. Garcia easily won reelection in 2005, and was unopposed in 2007.

Adrian Garcia’s successful campaign for Harris County Sheriff required him to give up his council seat in 2009, necessitating a special election this Saturday in District H. This special election raises the possibility that one of the two traditionally “Hispanic” seats on Council will revert back to an Anglo, Maverick Welsh. Since the Hispanic population has continued to grow in the city and county, while the overall Anglo population is basically flat, what is going up here?

The basic problem for Hispanics is that old bugaboo of a low rate of registered voters compared to total population. When District I was redraw in 2001, for example, the census numbers showed it was 66.4% Hispanic, 17.6% non-Hispanic white (or Anglo), and 14.7% non-Hispanic black. However, the registered voter population in the district was only about 40% Hispanic at the time, 40% Anglo, and 20% black. Given this diversity, why were all the major candidates who ran in the redrawn district from 2001 to 2007 Latinos? My guess is the “Hispanic reputation” of the district made it unattractive for non-Latinos to run in the district, and also resulted in the city hall insiders who largely fund council races concentrating their financing behind viable contenders from the Hispanic community.

Whatever the reasons, the field was left to Hispanic contenders until this year’s special election. Two serious Anglo candidates initially entered the race, but realtor Karen Derr failed to file on time, leaving Peter Brown’s former chief of staff, Mr. Welsh, as the lone Anglo in the field. He is, in my view, a likely runoff candidate, given the changes going on in the district. Why?

First, he is running an active campaign and appears to be well funded. And he now gets some benefit as the only Anglo on the ballot. That is especially true because the district is changing. The Hispanic and black vote shares are dropping in District H, and the Anglo vote is steadily growing. The parts of the district near downtown are experiencing significant gentrification, as rising land values force low income minorities out to be replaced by more affluent, and mostly Anglo newcomers. Evidence of this shift can be seen in the latest breakdown of registered voters in the district compiled by Hector DeLeon at County Clerk Beverly Kaufman’s office where the 33,014 Spanish surname registered voters in District H accounted for just 36.5% of the 90,473 persons on the voter rolls. By contrast, I estimate the current Anglo registration at more than 45% in District H.

The mostly upscale Anglos residents of H also tend to be high-turnout types. In the November 2008 presidential election, the Spanish surname vote was just 28.2% in District H, blacks an estimated 18%, and Anglos 53%. No wonder Ms. Derr and Mr. Welsh decided to run in 2009. This is now a district that a Hispanic candidate can win, but that individual must have some crossover appeal to claim the office.

Based on this analysis, what is likely to happen Saturday? As noted, the changing nature of the district gives Maverick Welsh a likely runoff spot, with the best funded Hispanic candidates, Yolanda Navarro Flores and Ed Gonzalez, fighting for the other position. Turnout will be very light – probably only five or six percent – so every vote will really matter in this changing district.

- By Richard Murray

Comments

[URSINCHRIST]

Go Mav!

[albert Sanchez]

If the Texas legislature passes the bill that requires voters to show identification for voting how would the other districts that are heavy Hispanic or Black change the way candidates chose to enter races in districts otherwise not competitive.