Follow the Money: What Does the July 15th Campaign Reports Tell Us About the Houston Mayoral Election?

In the election business, we often say that the first primary is raising money.  One might decry the reality, but American elections for significant offices almost always require substantial spending to get voters acquainted with candidates and issues.  Money does not guarantee winning, but it is almost always necessary to be competitive.

Now that we are in one of our competitive mayoral cycles with popular incumbent Bill White forced to leave office by term limits, what can we glean from the recent financial reports city candidates filed this week?   Here is my take:

Unlike six years ago, these reports do not show any definite advantage for one any of the three major candidates.  City Controller Annise Parker, Council Member Peter Brown, and former City Attorney Gene Locke can all claim something positive from the numbers - and all quickly did.  Six years ago the mid-summer reports showed Bill White was moving into a position to dominate the race.  Considered a long shot early in 2003, White's combination of personal money and significantly larger contributions from others made it increasingly likely he would make a runoff with either Orlando Sanchez or Sylvester Turner, a runoff Bill White would almost certainly win.  (White was also using his superior financing extremely well, in contrast to the disorganized campaign Sanchez was running).

OK - so this time around we do not see any game-changing aspects from the July reports, but that does not mean these filingsdo not give us some useful information for assessing the race.  Here are a few things that stand out:

Money is very tight this year.  Nationally and locally campaign contributions are down sharply from previous cycles.  That means the pattern of fund raising we see in July will likely not change much over the rest of the year. 

Each campaign, as noted, got some positive news from the reports.  Let’s look first at the presumed front-runner in the race, Annise Parker.  She had a decent haul – over 800,000 dollars raised – and still seems to have the easiest track to a runoff stop.  Ms. Parker had the largest number of individual contributors, a plus because donors often follow their money and help their candidate in other important ways.  Parker’s base of contributors continues to look a lot like Kathy Whitmire’s in the early 1980s.  Whitmire, you recall, led into a runoff in 1981 and easily dispatched Sheriff Jack Heard in the December finals.  Like the previous City Controller, Annise Parker can continue to hope for a repeat in 2009.

Gene Locke had the most to lose from these reports.  He is less well-known than the office-holding candidates, and his campaign organization has recently been shaken up.  He needed to reassure supporters and potential supporters that the fund raising was going well.  He did  this.  By raising more than 1.1 million dollars, significantly more than his opponents, he met that test, and it was vital for him to do so.  Clearly he will now have the resources to wage a competitive campaign, and as a credible African American candidate with a lot of white financial supporters, he has strengthened his runoff prospects. 

Turning to Peter Brown, the best news here was neither of his opponents are raising the huge sums needed to launch a TV blitz like Bill White did six years.  In contrast, Mr. Brown reported about three times as much cash on hand as Parker or Locke, so he alone could seize the initiative and make a major media buy to try and shake up the race and improve his position.  His financial advantage should also enable him to aggressively court black voters - a constituency he simply must finish a strong second with to have any chance of making a runoff.   But these reports show Peter Brown's ability to raise money from contributors is declining, so his financial advantage is entirely due to personal money he has put in the race.   Let's now see if he is willing to spend those dollars to cut into the edge that Annise Parker and Gene Locke seem to have in mid-July.

Dr. Richard Murray