Voter Interest and Likely Turnout in the 2009 Mayoral Election

There are about 2.2 million people living within the Houston city limits, but I expect only about one person in eight will vote in the November 3^rd General Election.  How do we end up with so few voters out of such a large population, especially given a competitive mayoral election for one of the most powerful executive positions of any American city?

Let’s do the math.  Of the 2.2 total population, about 500,000 are not of voting age, so we can subtract them, leaving 1.7 million of so persons meeting the 18 or older requirement to register and vote.

Then, subtract from the age-eligible residents who are not U.S. citizens (probably about 150,000 adults in the city), and persons convicted of felonies who have not had their civil rights restored (maybe another 75.000), which drops our potential voter pool to less than 1.5 million.

Next, delete persons who are eligible to vote but are not registered to vote in the city.  That drops about 400,000 additional people out of the potential electorate.  Now these folks still have another 30 days to get on the voter rolls, but very few people register in advance of city elections, in contrast to the November presidential contests, so we will end up with only have about a million registered voters qualified to cast ballots when early voting commences in October.

Now subtract the largest group – people who are registered, but will not vote.  That total I expect to be a staggering 750,000, compared to maybe 250,000 who show up at the polls.  Why do I expect such a huge dropoff?

First, turnout patterns in competitive city mayoral elections is usually only about 30 percent of eligible voters.  In 2003 when we had out last open-seat contest for mayor, about 300,000 votes were cast in the city. 

We are unlikely to reach that level this fall for several reasons.  The field of candidates is not as well known as six years ago when two previous mayoral finalists (Orlando Sanchez and Sylvester Turner) were competing against the biggest campaign spender (Bill White) in Houston's election history. 

This year the major candidates, Annise Parker, Peter Brown, Gene Locke and Roy Morales are much less well known to voters 60 days before the polls open than was the case in 2003, and they have far less money to address that problem.  That means potential voters will get much less information from paid advertising, especially on television, than was the case in 2003. 

Nor will free media likely devote as much attention to the mayoral contest compared to six years ago.  This fall much political coverage will focus on Washington D.C. where a great fight over health care, climate and environmental policy, and the role of the federal government in the economy is unfolding.  That battle on the Potomac is being waged along party lines with virtually all Republicans united against President Obama’s major proposals, and most Democrats sticking with the President.   The national party battle does not transfer to our city election, because the only three candidates that have raised any substantial campaign funds (Locke, Parker, and Brown) are all Democrats and differ little on most substantive policy issues. 

Add to this the battle royale shaping up here in Texas between our senior U.S. senator, Kay Bailey Hutchison, and Governor Rick Perry for the GOP gubernatorial nomination, and even less media attention is likely to be focused on city politics over the next 60 days. 

These considerations lead me to conclude that turnout in 2009 will be significantly below our 300,000 voters in 2003.  How much lower?  I think in the 225,000 to 250,000 range.  This means campaigns have to carefully target mail, electronic messages, and phone bank efforts at a shrunken electorate.   How to do that?   Start with the 125,000 persons who voted in the 2007 General Election.  If they came out when Bill White had no meaningful competition two years ago, they will very likely come back to the polls this year, if they are still on the city voter rolls.   Then, try to figure out who the other 125,000 likely suspects are by a variety of means. 

Low interest and likely low voter turnout in the upcoming city election should not detract from the important reality that those who do vote will be choosing the most powerful local political leader in this metropolitan area of 5.5 million people, and one of the most dominant urban executives in the country.   For better or worse, Houstonians put most of our local political eggs in the Office of the Mayor basket when a new city

charter was enacted back in 1942.  That is even more the case in 2009 when term limits have weakened council, and the city bureaucracy that answers to the mayor is twenty times larger than it was when local voters approved a new form of city government early in World War II.         

Dr. Richard Murray