Gene Locke's Pincer Strategy: Can He Combine White Republicans and Black Democrats in a Winning Coalition?

In Houston mayoral elections, the largest voter blocs are white Republicans and black  Democrats.  Each accounts for about 30 percent of the total vote in a typical city election.   Although Houston elections are officially non-partisan, in past competitive mayor elections, these groups have  supported different candidates.  For example, in the four contests when there was a credible black on the ballot (Sylvester Turner in 1991 and 2003. Lee Brown in 1997 and 2001), the African American candidate got between 78 and 95 percent of the black vote, but lost white Republican areas by equally large margins.   This year things might be different.  Gene Locke certainly hopes so, as he is clearly trying not only to unite the black community behind his candidacy, but to also run strong in Republican areas on the west side of town.  Given the fact that no black mayoral candidate has done this before, why does Mr. Locke think he can create this unique political coalition?  

In my view, there are several reasons.  First, there is no strong Republican in the field this year.  Yes, I know Roy Morales is running, but he has raised little money and has not won support from prominent members of his party.   Couple this with the fact that Gene Locke's major opponents, City Controller Annise Parker and Council Member Peter Brown are also Democrats, like the former city attorney, and we have the Republican vote truly up for grabs this year.  But why would Locke think that he can do much better than the previous black male contestants in appealing to self-identified Republican voters, most of whom have little knowledge of him and what he stands for? 

The answer to that is that Gene Locke has won the support of important cue-givers that have credibility with many of these voters, starting with former mayor Bob Lanier.   Accordingly, we can expect to see a great deal of Mr. Lanier over the next few weeks.   Ditto for Harris County Clerk Beverly Kaufman, now the longest serving Republican in a county-wide administrative office.  She just cut a robocall message promoting Locke’s candidacy targeted at Republicans.  (One Locke supporter we won’t see much of is former Mayor Lee Brown, who remains very unpopular with GOP voters.)  Locke has also gotten the nod from groups whose endorsements play well on the west side of town like the Houston Police Officers Union, the Firefighters Association, the Realtors Association, and the C Club (the C stands for Conservative).   And Locke has hired prominent Republican consultants like Mary Jane Smith for field organization, and Herb Butrum for fund-raising.

Will this strategy work?  That remains to be seen, as Peter Brown and Annise Parker also understand the heightened potential of Republican voters this year.  Ms. Parker especially aims to do well with Republican women voters, much as Kathy Whitmire did in her mayoral victories in the 1980s.  And Peter Brown hopes his "blueprint for Houston" theme will win over a sizeable number of white Houstonians, including some Republicans, who support more vigorous urban planning.

Besides the risk that Gene Locke's strategy will fall flat on the west side of town, his visible effort also creates a possible backlash in the most important pillar of his election campaign - the black community.  Will these most reliable of Democratic voters in partisan elections hesitate to rally behind a black candidate courting Republican voters across town?  Peter Brown sure hopes so, and his prominent black supporters like Pastor Emeritus Bill Lawson of Wheeler Avenue Baptist Church may find this a useful theme to stress in pushing the Council Member's campaign for African American votes.  

Gene Locke is willing obviously willing to take that chance.  On November 3^rd we’ll find out if can pull off this unusual electoral coalition.                     

Dr. Richard Murray

Comments

[Andrew Bonniwell]

I think it is going to be a dogfight between Parker and Locke.

I like Locke's ideas of spending in our means while I like Parker's drainage issue solutions.

I think in my heart of hearts that Locke and Parker have the best chance of getting a majority of the votes based on the fact they go towards the common person.

Brown and Morales really don't float my boat much especially Morales because he's doing the McCain approach and he really didn't have much of a plan when he appeared on Beyond The Headlines.

Brown has been running commercials like crazy yet I don't think he is going to last much longer in this race.

What this city needs is somebody whose going to listen to the common person. Locke and Parker both fit the description well.

In terms of who will win? I'm not sure yet because it is a two way tie with me between Locke and Parker. I'm leaning more towards Locke but Parker has some good ideas especially when it comes to our flooding problems with drainage.

Who wins this election is based on the message they bring across along with it hitting the common person. We need somebody whose going to listen to us and blow off the government.

Bill White has been an awesome mayor and his leadership during Ike was the best I had ever seen. I'm proud to live in this area and have White as our mayor. I hope Locke or Parker are just like White was except I hope they tackle the problems this city needs to fix like drainage and spending.

[Michael D]

Kaufman and Lanier just nominally support the Republican platform. I'm looking for a candidate who will cut spending and not raise city rates for garbage, water and taxes. Call me a disaffected conservative voter.

[Byron R]

I am for the candidate that best manages the future of the city. It is a toss up of who I will be voting for. I like the fact that Locke has been endorsed by the Houston Police Officers Union, the Firefighters Association, and the Realtors Association. Those are very strong associations and mean a great deal to the city and citizens. We all need great civil servants to protect us and to keep our real estate market steady.

If the groups I mentioned above endorse Locke, I would probably lean more towards voting for Locke also. A safe city and steady real estate market will keep the City of Houston economy moving.

[Robert]

I recently read that Dr. Murray's son works on the Gene Locke campaign and that Dr. Murray is paid by a Lanier foundation for his political analysis. Shouldn't that be disclosed at the top of every commentary. Obviously, Dr. Murray has a vested interest in the election. It seems like no reporter in this city can be unbiased.

[Michael]

It's not Dr. Murray's son that works for Locke, it's Bob Stein from Rice University. His son is the one working for the Locke campaign.

[CathyC]

Wondering what candidate positions are about House Resolution (HR) 676- Single Payer health care reform? Nat'l health & insurance reforms will affect local, expecially the City budget crisis for employees & retirees health care expenditures. How will next Mayor address the City budget crisis and our health care crisis in Houston?
They need to hear from Houstonians who want profiteering OUT of health insurance, health care/insurance burden stories. HOW would they vote on a resolution to endorse single payer IF they are elected.
What do these candidates know about health care crisis in our city, budgeting, labor negotiations, dealing with contracts, improving services and dealing with the skyrocketing costs of health care expenditures for employees & retirees... etc.??

[Jerry Smith]

Gene Locke is NOT John Lindsey, former Mayor of New York City. I do not believe it is possible for Locke to get a majority of the African-American vote and the West Side Republican vote. For one thing, the A-A vote is actually being divided up substantially among the top three mayoral candidates. Plus the Repubs will be reminded more strongly as Nov. 3rd approaches that Gene Locke would be the Second African-American Mayor of Houston (Lee Brown being the first).