Polling in the Houston Mayoral Election: Does It Tell Us How the November 3rd Vote Will Go?

The 2008 presidential primaries and general election featured the largest number of published polls in American history.  And, despite numerous technical problems like greater use of cell phones and higher refusal rates, the pre-election polls were remarkably accurate.  There was one notable exception in the New Hampshire Democratic Primary where every survey showed Senator Barack Obama beating Senator Hillary Clinton by an average margin of eight points, when in fact she ended up winning by three percent.  That case aside, virtually every other state primary and general election result was correctly predicted by surveys published before election day.  Should the success of pollsters in predicting the state-by-state and national presidential results give us confidence that published pre-election polls here in Houston will also correctly forecast the November 3^rd election results?  The answer is no.  Here’s why.

The presidential election campaign started more than a year before primary voting began, and 20 months before the general election in November 2008.  Voters were highly interested in the contest, and unusually attentive.  Several of the major candidates (Hillary Clinton, John McCain, Rudy Giuliani, John Edwards) were already well-known to voters before the race started and others (Barack Obama, Mitt Romney) would become familiar figures to the electorate long before voters went to the polls.  Free or earned media coverage of the leading candidates was intense, and the major contenders had large campaign war-chests (excepting McCain) to advertise themselves before the polls opened.  And, finally, this was a partisan contest that the great majority of the public that think of themselves as Democrats or Republicans could filter political information through a blue or red political lens. 

None of these conditions exist in the Houston mayoral race.  The campaign has only been visible to voters for a few weeks, and the city electorate has displayed little interest to this point.  None of the candidates were well known to voters when the race began, and that remains the case two weeks before the polls open on November 3^rd.  That reflects the fact that free media coverage has been limited, and until Council Member Peter Brown tapped his family wealth to fund a major TV ad blitz in September, paid advertising has been anemic.  And this is not only an officially non-partisan race, but it is also one in fact because the three candidates with funded, active campaigns (Brown plus Controller Annise Parker and former City Attorney Gene Locke) are all Democrats.

In short, the conditions that enabled pollsters to accurately measure voter intentions before the presidential voting in 2008 simply do not exist in Houston this year.  A better analogy to draw from the 2007-2008 presidential cycle is to look at the polling results in 2007 after all the major candidates had announced.  From March to December of that year, the polls consistently showed Hillary Clinton leading Barack Obama by statistically significant margins, and from May to December showed John McCain trailing Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani, and (briefly) Fred Thompson.  Of course, none of the 2007 “front-runners” won their respective party nominations.  So, as accurate as the pollsters were just before the actual voting in 2008, their earlier results were badly off the mark.

Keep that in mind in looking at surveys like the Houston Chronicle poll published last weekend.  The Chronicle found Peter Brown leading the field with 24 percent of likely voters, followed by Annise Parker at 19 percent, Gene Locke at 13 percent, and Roy Morales at 7 percent.  Does these data mean Peter Brown has wrapped up a runoff spot, as Commentary’s Marc Campos suggested in his blog today?  I think not.  Brown’s lead is almost certainly of the “soft” variety driven by his huge advantage in television and direct mail advertising in the weeks prior to newspaper’s poll.  That advantage will be less over the next two weeks as Parker and Locke run more ads.  But more importantly, most of the cue-givers in the city that also provide important information for voters are supporting Annise Parker or Gene Locke.  With the exception of some black ministers, almost none are backing Peter Brown.  The cumulative effect of these groups and individuals is not easily measurable, but it will certainly work to the advantage of Ms. Parker and Mr. Locke and the disadvantage of Mr. Brown.

In closing, I would note that the Houston Chronicle newspaper is among those cue-givers that made their recommendation to mayoral voters on Sunday, October 18^th   a couple of days after releasing their poll.  The paper made a dual endorsement, praising both Annise Parker and Gene Locke as worthy successors to Mayor Bill White.  Notably absent were any good words about Peter Brown.

Dr. Richard Murray

Comments

[Rose]

So you're saying Roy Morales is going to win? Someone should out Murray and how he actually feels about Brown... We all know Murray supports his "friend" Gene Locke, so am I surprised by this blog? No.

[Rick Smith]

Dr. Murray should have admitted that Gene Locke strategy of combining Black voters with Westside Republicans is a failure to date. The Establishment Candidate in this mayoral race is Gene Locke. Look at who is funding and supporting his campaign: Bob Lanier, Greater Houston Partnership, Republican Party, et.al. The only independent candidate is Peter Brown.

[Tim]

You're at of touch, Murray. Your racist friend Gene Locke is not going to make it this time around. You're exactly the time of person (a "honky") that Gene Locke tried to get rid of.

[Candice]

Richard Murray has been on an anti Peter Brown campaign since spring of this year. He needs to put his "friendship" with Gene Locke aside and look at this race in an unbiased manner. I think at this point most of us know it’s a Peter Brown and Parker runoff – who will Gene’s few supporters flock to then then? From what Miya Shay reports, many of Gene’s BIG supporters are already bailing on him. Where do they go now?