Assessing Bill White's chances in the March Democratic Gubernatorial contest

Filing for the Republican and Democratic primaries closed Monday, so we now know the contestants for the major party nominations for governor and other offices. As expected, Senator Hutchison will be opposing Governor Rick Perry on the GOP side, with Tea Party activist Debbie Medina also in the fray. We'll look at that race next week, but today let's focus on the Democrats running for the big job today.

Seven people filed for governor as Democrats: Alma Aguado, Felix Alvarado, Bill Dear, Clement Glenn, Star Locke, Farouk Shami, and Bill White. How does that contest shape up 54 days before the March 2nd vote?

It looks like Bill White all the way from my corner for a half dozen reasons.

(1) While not widely known outside of the Houston area, the other six candidates have virtually no name identity with Democratic voters anywhere in the state. So White starts with a significant advantage.

(2) Five of the other six candidates are not only unknown, but also have no realistic way of overcoming that huge problem in 54 days. Getting your name out to voters in a megastate like Texas takes a lot of money, and Ms. Aguado, and Messrs. Alavado, Dear, Glenn, and Locke do not have the millions of dollars required for a quick fix.

(3) That leaves Bill White with just one real contender, Farouk Shami, who is very, very, wealthy, to beat in the March primary. Mr. Shami has told media he will spend ten million dollars to present himself to voters before the primary. He has hired professional campaign consultants like Dan McClung and Robert Jara of Campaign Strategies; and his TV ads, yard signs, and other visible indicators suggest he is following through on his promise.

(4) But the odds are strongly against Mr. Shami succeeding in the March primary for several reasons. First, big personal spenders lose three times out of four on average. (Remember Peter Brown in the November 3rd Houston city election?) Farouk Shami's odds are a lot worse than one in four because he has no history in Democratic party politics - a big liability in a primary dominated by party loyalists - and his background of immigrating to the United States from the Middle East and building a hugely successful business is an inspiring personal story, but it does little for him politically in a race where most of the voters are African Americans, Latinos, rural Anglos, and urban white liberals.

(5) And then there is Bill White. The former mayor has a strong base in the Houston area, good fund-raising capability in a contest where there is no limit on the size of the checks written, and the support of virtually all establishment Democrats across the state who are hungry to recapture the governor position after 16 years in the wilderness.

(6) Finally, we know from watching the 2003 mayoral race in Houston that Bill White is an extremely hard-working campaigner, who has a veteran team in place to support his statewide effort, and a deserved reputation for getting the maximum benefit from his political expenditures.

Taken together, Bill White is almost certain to be the Democratic nominee for governor this year. There is some question as to whether he can get 50% plus against six opponents, thus avoiding an April runoff with Farouk Shami (I think he will get a majority). But the bigger question to me is why Mr. Shami entered a race he has virtually no chance of winning.

People I have spoken with advance two answers to "Why is Farouk doing this?" question. First, ego. He has made plenty of money and wants to move into the public arena to validate his financial success before a wider audience than people who use his hair products.

Maybe, but maybe not. Some Democrats like State Senator John Whitmire speculate that Mr. Shami could be a stalking horse for Governor Rick Perry. Under this scenario, Mr. Shami would spend most of his ten million dollars hammering Bill White, with little expectation of beating the former mayor, but with the intent of softening him up for Rick Perry before the General Election in November. We'll get our question in a few weeks. If Mr. Shami spends his money promoting his own candidacy and life story, that validates the ego option. But if he turns into an attack dog in February, Senator Whitmire's hunch will be supported.

Comments

[gottago3]

Bill White could possibly win the primary because "you can't fix stupid" and that's what has gotten him elected in the past. His only claim to fame was creating the world's largest traffic jam when it was thought Rita was coming calling.

[Blue Dogs 2010]

White will easily win the Democratic nomination with 73 percent in March, Perry will beat KBH by 10 points: 55-45 on the GOP side, setting up a showdown between the longest-serving governor and the former Houston mayor.