Texas GOP Primary: Debra Medina emerges as a factor

The Rasmussen polling group released a poll yesterday in the Texas Republican governor’s race showing Rick Perry at 43%, Kay Bailey Hutchison at 33%, and Debra Medina at 12%, with 12% undecided or refusing to state a preference.  Based on her double-digit support, the Belo Corporation has decided to include the Wharton County activist in their televised debate at the end of the month.  In the only other public poll I have seen that included Ms. Medina, she had 7% support back in December, so it seems she is moving up.  This is not surprising as several developments are combining to make her a serious factor in the March 2nd primary.

First, the national mood among Republicans and Independents clearly favors anti-establishment candidacies as we see in Massachusetts today with the rise of GOP senate nominee Scott Brown in his race with Democratic Attorney General Martha Coakley.  Coakley represents the governing party – Brown is the outsider.  Transfer that national trend to Texas and who does it benefit?  Not the 17-year U.S. senator, or the nine-year governor, both of whom have been in elective political positions most of their adult lives.   No, a Tea Party activist who worked in Ron Paul’s 2008 presidential race can corner this segment of the electorate much more easily than her better-known opponents.

Second, Ms. Medina had a good debate last week in Denton.  She kept her answers short and on point, and projected a calm, consistent message that resonated with folks opposed to abortion, for gun and property rights, and opposed to the state tax system.  Governor Perry and Senator Hutchison did not fare so well, partly because their bickering at each other enabled Ms. Medina to occupy the high ground.  It will be interesting to see if the insurgent candidate can build on her solid performance in the second, and final, televised debate.

Debra Medina is not, of course, anywhere near as well-known as Rick Perry or Kay Bailey Hutchison, but her years of work within the Republican Party give her credibility with party activists like precinct committee members.  These unpaid party volunteers can be very helpful in a low-vote primary, as we seem likely to have March 2^nd.  And because Ms. Medina will get better known as the election approaches because of the debates and other free media coverage, this gives her a good chance to grow her vote base, especially among the undecided voters who know Perry and Hutchison well, but have not yet decided to support either one.

Finally, a three-way party primary like the Republicans have for governor on March 2^nd is perfect for maximizing a “protest vote.”  Why?  Because of the Texas rule that one must get 50% plus to win the nomination.  If voters are angry at the party establishment and want to send a message, a vote for Ms. Medina is an easy way to do so.  From these voters’ perspective forcing Governor Perry and Senator Hutchison to settle things in an April runoff might not be all bad.  Making them go one-on-one for another 30 days would give those folks not much enamored with either front-runner an additional opportunity to size them up before making a final commitment for the November nominee.

A Perry-Hutchison runoff would be good news for Democrat Bill White, as it would consume millions of dollars in GOP campaign funds, and likely leave the eventual winner in a weaker position to unite the party for the General Election than would be the case if a clear winner emerges on March 2^nd. 

Dr. Richard Murray

Comments

[Kevin Whited]

** Transfer that national trend to Texas and who does it benefit? Not the 17-year U.S. senator, or the nine-year governor, both of whom have been in elective political positions most of their adult lives. **

Seriously?

Medina's at 12% in a Rasmussen poll.

That's even worse than perennial non-factor candidate Chris Bell usually fares in his races!

Come on now.

[John Conaghan]

Medina's only problem is being unfairly ignored by the main stream media. She is not a household name but her message is spreading like wildfire. Its about time for Texans to stand up and fight for Texas. If we only supported canidates the polls and media said could win then why even vote. People please take the time to learn about the issues and vote on what you believe not on who your told can win.

[Carol Mitchell]

Finally, another choice besides Barbie (Hutchinson), Ken (Perry), Howdy Doody (White) and the Chi man (Shami)!

[Jim Bob]

Lets see, Fake prick #1 or Fake Prick #2?

One supports extremely high property taxes on land they supposedly own.
One supports stealing private property
One supports banker bailouts
Both support Abortion
Both support open borders

Debra Media as governor = Problem solved