Democratic Primary for Governor: Does Bill White Have a Lock on the Nomination?

I've written about the Republican primary for governor several times, but have not looked at the Democratic race since Bill White announced in early December that he was switching from a U.S. senate race (if and when Kay Bailey Hutchison finally resigned) to run for his party's gubernatorial nomination.  How is our former mayor doing, with four weeks before the March 2nd election?  Pretty darn well, as it turns out.

First, when filing closed on January 4, 2010, six other individuals had paid their filing fee to run for governor as Democrats.  Their names and hometowns are listed below:

    Felix Alvarado of San Antonio
    Glen Clement of Navasota
    Bill Dear of Palm, Texas  (Where the hell is Palm??)
    Star Locke of Port Aransas
    Alma Ludivina of San Antonio
    Farouk Shami of Houston

Look familiar?  Nope.  Nobody on this list has even a smidgen of name recognition.  The handful of somewhat-known persons who filed as Democrats, like author/entertainer Kinky Friedman and former Travis County District Attorney Ronnie Earle, are running for other statewide offices.  That's a big break for Bill White.  The ex-mayor is not widely known outside of metro Houston, but compared to this field he's on a first name basis with half of Texas.

Second, five of the Democratic filers have no resources and no visible campaigns.  This means, in the case of Ms. Ludivina and Messrs.  Alvarado, Clement, Dear and Locke, they will remain unknown to primary voters when the polls close in four weeks. 

That leaves Farouk Shami of Houston.  Mr. Shami, who emigrated to this country in the 1980s, has made a fortune in the hair products business.  Worth perhaps a billion dollars, he certainly has the financial resources to extend his name identity beyond the beauty parlors and other tonsorial establishments that have bought his company's products and services over the years.  Mr. Shami has said he would spend ten million dollars contesting the primary, and appears to be a man of his word.  He has hired competent professionals, made and aired TV ads, and has signs scattered around neighborhoods in Houston.  This will have some impact, but nowhere near enough to propel Farouk Shami into an April 13th runoff with Bill White in my opinion.

Why?  His unusual (for Texans) first and last names, which indicate his Middle Eastern/Arab, and possible Muslim, origins.  There is no sugarcoating the fact that is a big handicap in a state where maybe two-three percent of the voters share an ethnic or religious identity with Mr. Shami, and a goodly number of the rest will, unfortunately, reject his candidacy because of prejudicial stereotyping. 

Democratic primary voters in Texas are mostly urban blacks, Mexican Americans in South Texas, rural Anglos, and white liberals.  None of these folks seem likely to gravitate to Mr. Shami following a ten-million dollar campaign over a few weeks.

So why is Farouk Shami running?  Three possible explanations.  He's delusional: he thinks he can actually win.  He's a stalking horse:  clever Republicans got him in the race to soften up Bill White before November.  Or, he is a very wealthy man who wants to establish some credibility and acceptance in his adopted state outside the business field he has found success in.  I'll take option three at this point.  It seems entirely reasonable to me that a billionaire would spend less than one percent of their net worth to get a little respect - after all, rich people blow many times that amount on dumb marriages, or at the gaming tables in Las Vegas, so we should cut this guy some slack in the Democratic primary. 

Cutting back to the chase, this Democratic primary field seems ready-made for Bill White.  The only danger I see for Mr. White is that Latino voters, turning out in large numbers to elect local candidates in South Texas, also cast enough ethnic solidarity votes for Mr. Alvarado or Ms. Ludivina at the top of the ticket to force an April runoff.   This could happen, but probably not.  My prediction is that White wins the Democratic primary outright on March 2, with about 60 percent of the statewide vote.      

Dr. Richard Murray

Comments

[John Cobarruvias]

To answer your question: YES

[PDiddie]

I'll take that bet, Dr. Murray.

First: her name is Dr. Alma Aguado; Ludivina is her middle (perhaps maiden) name.

http://www.almaaguadoforgovernor.com/introduction/

Second: In 2006, Felix Alvarado's sister -- who had no prior elective experience -- became the Democratic nominee for lieutenant governor, finishing ahead of an Anglo who had been both a state representative and an appeals court judge in East Texas. She led in the primary election (which included another Hispanic political novice, Adrian DeLeon) and she won the run-off handily.

That's right; four years ago Ben Z. Grant, the only non-Latino running for lite gov, got less than 40% of the three-way vote in a race in which more Democrats voted than in the contests higher on the ballot: US Senator (Radnofsky v. Kelly) and governor (Bell v. Gammage). Ross Ramsey, now of the Texas Tribune and then of Texas Weekly, provided this data here:

http://texasweekly.com/newsletter/tw20060313.html

(Ninth graf from the top.)

Now personally I think Aguado and Alvarado can draw at least 30% of the primary vote between the two of them, so I'll say the March 2nd numbers look something like this:

White 40%
Shami 20%
Alvarado 18%
Aguado 12%
Dear, Glenn, and Locke together 10%

I believe it's entirely possible that Felix Alvarado and not Farouk Shami makes it into a run-off with White; much more likely in fact than White getting 50% +1.

I look forward to comparing predictions with you.

[Bill Justice]

Bill White has a great opportunity to win because he has most regular Democratic primary voters in his corner. The only way this contest gets into an April runoff is if Shami's campaign takes off or if the two Latino candidates get a decent chunk of the Latino vote in South Texas, El Paso, and the urban areas. Otherwise, White should squeak by with 55% of the vote.