Early Voting in Harris County and Around the State

I'll be stopping off at the Fiesta store on South Main to vote later Monday, joining the several hundred thousand Texans who have already cast their ballots in the party primaries.  Harris County Clerk Beverly Kaufman and the Office of the Texas Secretary of State provide daily updates on early voting.  What do these summaries show?

Let's start with Harris County and compare the numbers after six days of early voting in 2010 with the same figures after six days in 2006. 

                  Early Vote After          Early Vote After            
                  6 Days in 2006            6 Days in 2010             Change
 
    Republicans  11,154                    26,396       +15,242       +137%
    Democrats     3,616                     15,662        +11,596     +321%

Obviously, a lot more Houstonians are voting early this year than in the last gubernatorial primary.   On the Republican side that reflects an expensive and hard-fought Republican Primary between Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison and Governor Rick Perry, plus an insurgent candidacy by Debra Medina.  The big jump in Democratic voting is largely driven by unusually heavy African American voting (particularly in the 18th Congressional District of Congresswoman Sheila Jackson Lee) plus the candidacy of popular former Houston Mayor Bill White.

Statewide, the Secretary of State provides daily tallies of early voting in the 15 most populous counties in Texas.  The six day totals in these urban counties are:

                Early Vote in 2006      Early Vote in 2008             Change

   Republicans   47,974                 121,000          +73,026      +152%
   Democrats     53,400                   81,320          +27,920      +  52%

These data show Republican Primary voting is consistently higher statewide, exceeding the Harris County percentage gain, while statewide Democratic voting is up, but no-where near the big Harris County jump. 

What does these numbers mean?  First, they have to be encouraging for Senator Hutchison, whose campaign surely needs a little good news.  I concur with the assessment that her only chance to run competitively with Governor Perry is (A) there is a high GOP primary turnout, and (B) some "crossover" voting from Anti-Perry Independents and Democrats.  It looks like (A) is now happening.  If the six day early vote pattern from 2006 is projected to the final vote, we get a record Republican Primary vote in 2010 of 1,740,000.  Even if that projection is on the high side, we are going to have far more Republican votes cast than in previous gubernatorial primaries, which may get  Senator Hutchison into a competitive runoff with the governor.  As to point (B), we have no hard evidence, but anecdotal accounts indicate some crossover voting is occurring now that Bill White seems assured of winning the Democratic Primary.   My updated guesses for the Republican Primary are:

    Turnout:  1,550,000  (versus 640,000 in 2006)

    Governor Race:   Perry 44%         Hutchison 37%       Medina 19%

Looking at the Democratic early vote patterns statewide, we see sharply higher black voting in Houston and Dallas, somewhat higher voting among whites, and no increase in Hispanic voting from the 2006 turnout.  These patterns should benefit Bill White who is well known in the Houston black community and figures to run strongly with the small percentage of Anglos who still vote in Democratic primaries.   My early predictions for the Democrats are:

    Turnout:  860,000  (versus 540,000 in 2006)

    Governor Race:  White 65%       Shami 18%       Others 17%

Now let's get to the polls.

Dr. Richard Murray