Endorsements: Do They Matter?

On Sunday the Houston Chronicle issued a ringing endorsement of Bill White for governor of Texas.  This was expected, although perhaps not this early or with such enthusiasm.  But does it help the former mayor?  Do endorsements matter in modern American politics? 

When asked this question, I usually respond by saying endorsements are among the most over-rated events in political campaigns.  Voters are pretty independent these days, and usually rely on a wide range of factors in deciding how to cast their ballots, starting with their party identity.  That said, the answer is sometimes endorsements matter, and sometimes they do not.  What accounts for their effectiveness or ineffectiveness?  A short list would include the following:

Who is doing the endorsing?  Some sources have a lot of credibility, others very little or none.  Few politicians want to be endorsed by the Ku Klux Klan (David Duke being one exception), but most would like to get the support of Mothers against Drunk Driving.

Who are the voters or donors for whom the endorsement is relevant?  When Oprah Winfrey endorsed Barack Obama before the 2008 South Carolina Democratic Primary, her support helped bring African American women over to the lesser known U.S. Senator who was fighting Hillary Clinton for black female support in that critical election.

Was the endorsement expected?  When a Republican endorses a fellow Republican, that ain’t news.  But when Colin Powell breaks party ranks in October 2008 and males an eloquent case Senator Obama, rather than his friend Senator John McCain, that might actually sway some voters.  Ditto for Senator Joe Lieberman supporting Republican McCain in the same election. 

Does the endorsement bring money or other resources?  The Service Employees International Union’s endorsement was coveted in the 2009 Houston mayoral election because they back up their picks with serious money and can field dozens of campaign workers.

The SEIU went with Annise Parker over Gene Locke last year and their support helped her become the first openly gay mayor of a big city.

And what use does the favored candidate make of support from an endorsing group?  A tree felled in a deserted forest arguably makes no sound.  The mere fact that an endorsement is made does not assure that anyone who might be persuadable in an election will be aware of such. 

Taking these factors into account, how would I rate Sunday’s Houston Chronicle editorial backing Bill White?  Let’s go down the checklist.

Source:  The Houston Chronicle is the dominant daily newspaper in the second biggest media market in the state.  In previous surveys I have found that the paper has about a 2-1 positive impact on the twenty percent or so of voters who would be attentive to the endorsement, with the other 80 percent saying it would have no impact on their vote.

Target audience:  About 22 percent of the state’s voters reside in the Chronicle’s delivery area, so this is clearly a positive with the locals, but many of these folks had already formed a favorable opinion of Bill White during his years as mayor of Houston. 

Endorsement expected:  Absolutely.  This is a dog bites man story.  Conversely, if Governor Perry had won the backing of the former mayor’s hometown paper, that would have been a big story around the state as well as locally.

Side effects:  The Houston daily paper is delivered to hundreds of thousands households at the expense of the Hearst Corporation, so an endorsement automatically assures widespread distribution with follow-up pro-White editorials likely to come when early voting starts as well as election day, November 2, 2010. 

Use by the candidate?  Bill White doesn’t need to tout this expected endorsement much in the Houston media market where he is well known and favorably viewed.  What Mr. White really needs is to be able to fold the local paper’s endorsement into a statewide ad that shows all or most of the big metropolitan papers in his corner.  I expect the San Antonio Express-News will follow the Chronicle’s lead (both are Hearst papers and Bill White grew up in the Alamo City), as well as the Austin American-Statesman given the Governor’s unpopularity in the capital city where he received just 26% of the vote in November 2006. 

Much more important will be the Dallas Morning News, followed by the Fort Worth Star-Telegram.  The Metroplex is the largest media market in Texas, and Bill White is not well known there.  IF Mr. White gets both papers endorsements, that could be quite helpful in the most important local venue in Texas, and at the same time provide the basis for a powerful statewide ad.  But that is a mighty big IF.  The Dallas Morning News has not endorsed many Democrats since the days of Dolph Briscoe, and the Fort Worth paper usually goes with the GOP nominee as well, so keep a close eye on what they do.  Those endorsements could really matter. 

Dr. Richard Murray